Climate impact, risk, and opportunity management

Physical climate risk scenarios

Scenario description

RCP 8.5°C high-emissions scenario

Under RCP 8.5°C, emissions continue to rise throughout the 21st century and it is generally considered to be the worst-case climate scenario where temperature increases by about 5°C by 2100.

RCP 2.6°C stringent pathway scenario

Under RCP 2.6°C, carbon dioxide emissions start to decline by 2020 and reach zero by 2100, also requiring methane emissions to reduce to approximately half of 2020 levels, while sulfur dioxide emissions decline to approximately 10% of those of 1980.

Hazard

Acute

Chronic

Description

Potential impact on Corteva Agriscience

Extreme heat

X

X

Occurs due to a prolonged period of excessively hot weather.

Heat is a failure-only hazard, which could halt production.

Extreme wind

X

Occurs due to extreme wind events that produce sustained gusts of wind.

Extreme wind can cause property damage and interrupt production.

Surface water flooding

X

Occurs when the ground is over-saturated and/or drainage systems overflow and the excess water cannot be absorbed or drained away.

Surface water flooding can cause property damage and interrupt production.

Riverine flooding

X

Occurs when streams and rivers exceed the capacity of their natural or constructed channels to accommodate water flow and water overflows from the banks, spilling out into adjacent low-lying, dry land.

Riverine flooding can cause property damage and interrupt production.

Soil subsidence

X

Occurs due to the downward movement of soil, usually due to withdrawal of moisture.

Soil subsidence can cause property damage if low groundwater causes foundations to shift.

Forest fire

X

Occurs due to uncontrolled fire in an area of combustible vegetation.

Forest fires can cause property damage and interrupt production.

Coastal inundation

X

X

Occurs due to sea level rise and storm surges.

Coastal inundation can cause property damage and interrupt production.

Climate transition risk scenarios

Scenario description

  • Protected areas refer to areas that are under “strict protection” (WDPA Cat I, II), i.e. human activity is limited and controlled.
  • BECCS includes agricultural residues and waste and energy crops specifically grown for use as fuel.

>3°C Historic Trends Scenario

>3°C Historic Trends represents a scenario in which climate action remains stable at current levels, creating limited transition risks, but the world fails to limit global warming to manageable levels, resulting in substantial future physical risks. This scenario has low levels of transition risk.

<2°C Coordinated Policy Scenario

<2°C Coordinated Policy Scenario is a scenario where timely policy and regulation work to curb emissions in an orderly fashion, decreasing the physical risk of climate but increasing the transition risk. This scenario has moderate levels of transition risk.

1.5°C Innovation Scenario

Under 1.5°C Innovation Scenario, large demands from the energy system for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)2, coupled with greater-than-historic yield growth in agriculture and government support for R&D, enables early decarbonization and limited physical impacts of climate. This scenario has high levels of transition risk, but may be muted by technological progress.

Risk type & primary climate-related risk driver

Where in the value chain does the risk driver occur?

Likelihood of risk

Potential impact to Corteva

Velocity of risk

Government policy, technology development

Direct operations

Medium

Medium

Medium 5-10 years

What is the opportunity?

There are opportunities for Corteva to explore renewables and energy efficiency as levers for achieving the Company’s commitment to GHG reduction. This opportunity may focus on Corteva’s operations as well as suppliers becoming more efficient or using renewable energy.

What is Corteva doing about it?

Corteva is working to reduce GHG emissions while enabling a more resilient agriculture value chain. Corteva has an established climate strategy, including appropriate Scope 1 and 2 GHG reduction targets. The Company is seeking ways to reduce its impact and providing tools and incentives for customers to do the same. Corteva champions climate-positive agriculture, utilizing carbon storage and other means to remove more carbon from the atmosphere than it emits without sacrificing farmer productivity or ongoing profitability. Learn more about our operational improvements here.

Risk type & primary climate-related risk driver

Where in the value chain does the risk driver occur?

Likelihood of risk

Potential impact to Corteva

Velocity of risk

Government policy, market demand

Upstream

High

High

High <5 Years

What is the opportunity?

Climate regulations may support accelerated efforts for climate-resilient agriculture. Corteva can partner with customers and offer decision science tools and products to help them access market opportunities for climate-resilient or low-carbon agricultural products.

What is Corteva doing about it?

Corteva carbon solutions are designed to simplify and enable the path to profitability for farmers who adopt new climate-positive practices for sequestering carbon and reducing on-farm GHG emissions. This initiative leverages the full spectrum of our seed, crop protection, biologicals, decision science, and agronomic expertise, while providing farmers with access to new markets through a simple, flexible way to sell carbon credits for a fair price on their terms.

Risk type & primary climate-related risk driver

Where in the value chain does the risk driver occur?

Likelihood of risk

Potential impact to Corteva

Velocity of risk

Market demand

Upstream

High

High

High <5 years

What is the opportunity?

Corteva has opportunities related to the integration of crop protection, seed, biologicals, and data analytics.
These solutions can reduce climate impacts by reducing overall inputs, potentially reducing land use through increased yields, as well as other potential benefits from on-farm data collection and digital services to support climate adaptation.

What is Corteva doing about it?

Corteva has formed a unified Decision Science organization within its R&D function, enabling data analytics needs from the earliest parts of the R&D pipeline all the way to the digital sustainable solutions being used by farmers.

Risk type & primary climate-related risk driver

Where in the value chain does the risk driver occur?

Likelihood of risk

Potential impact to Corteva

Velocity of risk

Market demand

Upstream

Almost certain

High

High <5 years

What is the opportunity?

Corteva continues to advance crop protection offerings, many of which can help to address climate-related challenges. For example, nitrogen fertilizer is a source of on-farm emissions. Corteva continues to focus on nitrogen efficiency by delivering products that promote the retention of nitrogen in the soil and support profitability. There may be further opportunities for increased market demand for products that improve nitrogen efficiency and reduce emissions while supporting farmers’ businesses.

What is Corteva doing about it?

Optinyte® nitrogen stabilizer technology reduces denitrification, reducing the escape of GHG into the atmosphere. Conclusions from a meta-analysis were that, on average, use of Optinyte technology resulted in a 51% reduction of nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and a 16% decrease in soil nitrogen leaching. The stabilization of nitrogen resulted in a 7% increase in crop yield by extending nitrogen availability in the soil for up to eight weeks during critical growth stages. Utrisha™ N nitrogen optimizer technology, a natural origin biostimulant, enables plants to improve nutrient use efficiency and provide nitrogen directly to crops as a sustainable supplemental nitrogen source.

Risk type & primary climate-related risk driver

Where in the value chain does the risk driver occur?

Likelihood of risk

Potential impact to Corteva

Velocity of risk

Government policy, technology development

Upstream

High

High

Medium 5-10 years

What is the opportunity?

Corteva is exploring new technologies and climate-related products. New genomic techniques may allow Corteva to increase yield potential and yield protection, resulting in climate resiliency being further integrated into seed products.

What is Corteva doing about it?

Corteva achieved verification that the organization is operating in conformance with the Framework for Responsible Use of Gene Editing in Agriculture. The framework outlines principles and guidelines that organizations can voluntarily follow to demonstrate their commitment to the safe and transparent use of gene editing technology. Gene editing techniques can allow seed companies to enhance crops to make them more resilient to environmental stresses and pests, while also producing higher yields, reducing the need for agriculture-related land-use change.